Betrayal Aversion and Political Trust under Supranational Regulation: Evidence from EU Green Industrial Policy
- Programa:
- Sesión 2, Sesión 2
Día: miércoles, 9 de septiembre de 2026
Hora: 11:30 a 13:15
Lugar: Sem. 2
How do supranational regulatory shocks affect trust in supranational versus domestic political systems? This paper examines the impact of EU CO₂ emission regulations on political trust in national and European institutions within automotive-dependent regions. Linking European Social Survey data to regional and national indicators, I exploit geographic variation in automotive embeddedness and the exogenous timing of the European Green Deal (2019) and the Fit for 55 proposal (2021). Using a difference-in-differences design and a triple-interaction framework, I compare the trust effects of policy announcements with a continuous measure of realized industrial production shocks. The results reveal a marked institutional asymmetry: while the supranational regulator - the EU parliament - remains largely insulated, the 2035 combustion engine ban triggers a significant trust collapse disproportionately borne by national parliaments. Crucially, the ideological filter of Euroskepticism functions as a stronger distrust driver than objective industrial decline. Although material shocks also reduce political trust asymmetrically, Euroskepticism amplifies this effect by reinterpreting domestic compliance as a violation of the state’s protective mandate. This generates a “domestic betrayal effect,” rooted in betrayal aversion, where the national trust penalty is nearly three times larger than the supranational one.
Palabras clave: Political Trust, Political Economy, Green Transition Policy, EU Politics, Political Psychology