Political Fiascos and the Evaluation of Politicians: Quasi-experimental evidence

Autor principal:
Enrique Hernández Pérez (Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona)
Autores:
Macarena Ares (Universidad de Barcelona)
Programa:
Sesión 5, Sesión 5
Día: jueves, 11 de julio de 2019
Hora: 11:00 a 12:45
Lugar: Aula 106

This paper analyzes how the evaluations of individual politicians are affected by policy failures, and how these failures alter the foundations and heuristics on which individuals rely to evaluate these politicians. Through the implementation of a synthetic control method and an “Unexpected Event During Surveys Design” this study aims to contribute to the debate on whether citizens can single out responsibilities for the failures of individual politicians. The paper draws on extensive data on the evaluation of Spanish Ministers, and it exploits the coincidence of the failure of the Spanish Health Minister to manage a crisis with the fieldwork of a representative survey. Given that the day at which respondent are surveyed is as if-random, this crisis represents a unique opportunity to identify the causal effect of political fiascos on citizens’ attitudes. The results indicate that: (i) policy failures have a strong impact on the evaluation and name recognition of politicians; (ii) citizens are able to single out responsibilities for specific policy failures; (iii) policy failures change the foundations of citizens’ evaluations, who become less likely to rely on heuristics.

Palabras clave: Evaluation, Political support, Quasi-experiment, Causal identification.